Thursday, September 30, 2010

Week 4 Picks

Mind you, this is only if gambling were legal...so if you're in Vegas, feel free to use this advice, otherwise laugh at it and move it along....

Denver @ Tennessee (-6 ½):
So far Tennessee hasn’t looked good vs. only Pittsburgh. Otherwise they have rolled onward. Denver is a decent team on the road, way better at home. Tennessee pounds the rock, give the points. Titans.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-1 ½): Baltimore just whooped up on Cleveland. And? Other than that game they average 10 points a game. Pittsburgh just keeps finding ways to win. Divisional slobberknocker, and I can’t find a reason to take Baltimore. Steelers.

Cincinnati (-3) @ Cleveland: Can someone find the last MRI on Cincy QB Carson Palmer’s elbow? Why? I swear he’s not right. I was at a bar on Sunday watching a bunch of games (mostly watching the Patriots and wondering why they can’t stop Buffalo, but that is another story for another time) and I kid you not Palmer cannot throw a 10 yard hitch to his left on a 5 step drop. Doesn’t that seem odd? Cleveland, while losing to Baltimore last week ran the ball, and ran well. Rumor has it Jake Delhomme will start at QB for the Browns. If that’s the case, give the points, because Jake loves to give the ball to the other team. Bengals.

Detroit @ Green Bay (-14): While I don’t expect Detroit to win, this point spread is too high. Green Bay isn’t blowing out this division foe while they have no running game. Note to Packers GM Ted Thompson-trade for Bills RB Marshawn Lynch already, it’s a win/win! Detroit’s defensive line will be chasing Aaron Rodgers all day, I say the Pack win, by not by 2 TDs. Lions.

Carolina @ New Orleans (-13 ½): New Orleans looks like a team disinterested right now. Atlanta just went into the SuperDome and thumped the Saints by running the ball and controlling the clock. Add to it that apparently New Orleans is auditioning kickers, and I worry for this team, long term for this season. Carolina, on the other-ugh. A running game that is going nowhere, not without an injured stud tackle and a rookie QB. Someone please teach QB Jimmy Clausen to stop staring down his receivers, it’s getting kinda creepy. I say New Orleans comes out mad after their last two mediocre performances and proceeds to roll the Panthers. Saints.

San Francisco @ Atlanta (-6 ½): San Francisco, thou art a disappointment. Your QB is not good, but I refuse to lay the blame for your awful 0-3 start. No, after you fired Offensive Coordinator Jimmy Raye Smith will be averaging a new OC every year. So much for continuity. This team by the Bay is now a hot mess. Atlanta on the other hand looks like the real deal. Solid running game, 2 guys that can catch the ball and a defense that plays just well enough. Falcons.

Seattle (-1) @ St. Louis: So far Seattle has been awesome at home and ‘meh’ on the road. St. Louis is starting to look like a team that is about a year away, they play tough, they just lack talent. But this is one of those games where I don’t see a team winning so much as a team losing, like turning the ball over too much. Rams.

NY Jets (-5 ½) @ Buffalo: Is this a letdown game for the Jets? Does Buffalo catch them off guard? Buffalo will try and run the ball, and maybe hit WR Lee Evans long. Part of me thinks the Jets overlook this game but win it at the end. Buffalo.

Indianapolis (-7) @ Jacksonville: Thru 3 games on adage is still true-keep Colts QB Peyton Manning off the field and you have a chance to win. Otherwise it’s like watching an orchestra conductor. I don’t like him (there, I admitted it) but the guy can play QB. Jacksonville, on the other hand, has a guy who claims to play QB, but in all reality is beyond atrocious. David Garrard is only on the field because the Jaguars have no one else. I’m sure some folks in the ‘ville wished they had taken Tim Tebow in the draft, but it would matter not. This team is not good, and because their QB puts them in awful field position with his super capability to turn the ball over, their best player-RB Maurice Jones-Drew, is useless haflway thru the 3rd quarter. Colts, and it ain’t gonna be pretty.

Houston (-3) @ Oakland: Oakland should be 2-1. How does a kicker miss a 32 yard field goal? I can kick that (my limit is about 37 yards, but from 35, no sweat). Oakland is running the ball well, passing it decently, but they make dumb mistakes, all the time. Houston, on the other hand, finally got a Dallas team who decided to show up last week. Houston will be able to run the ball, and watch for TE Owen Daniels to snag a few long seam passes. Run the ball on the road and you have a chance. Texans.

Arizona @ San Diego (-8): San Diego I don’t get. 2 road games and they get killed on special teams. Might be time to look for a new ST coach, really. 1 punt return TD and 2 KO return TDs in 2 road games? Awful. However, the passing game is humming right along. Rookie RB Ryan Mathews should be back, too. Arizona? I have no idea how they are winning games. Maybe due to their schedule, but 2-1 is 2-1. I still don’t see the Cardinals as a rugged road team, and think the Chargers (please oh please for the love of all that is holy play in the powder blue uni’s!!) come out mad and force 3 INTs by ‘Zona QB Derek Anderson. Chargers.

Washington @ Philadelphia (-6): So my buddy Donovan McNabb gets to go back to Philly, and he’s already stated he expects to hear cheers when he returns. Uh, Donovan, buddy, I’m not sure if you remember all of your time ou there in the city of Brotherly Love, but they booed you on draft day and never appreciated getting to all those conference championships. Be thankful the Phillies are in the hunt for a World Series. That and the talent around you isn’t half of what you were traded away from on the Eagles. Eagles QB Michael Vick is playing crazy good right now. I know, it’s been a half against the Packers-who weren’t prepared for him, the Lions and then Jacksonville. And Philly’s O-Line hasn’t been great. But here’s what happens with a great athlete at QB-he makes plays. And with WRs DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, those plays go for longer than 25 yards. I think the game goes close early, but with the 4th quarter looming McNabb tries to force a pass to a WR who runs the wrong route, and it’s all downhill from there. Eagles.

Chicago @ NY Giants (-4): Can someone forward the following message to Giants QB Eli Manning, please? Eli, you’re righthanded, throw the damn ball with your right hand, not your left. I swear, the more I watch this guy fumble around and screw up the QB position, the more I’m convinced his brother Peyton shoved a Colts horseshoe up his ass for that damn Super Bowl. But that is one game, last week vs. the Tennessee Titans that I hope will be an anomaly. I’m thinking coach Tom Coughlin has these guys back in line this week with the Bears coming to town. Speaking of the Bears, how come none of the 3 geniuses mentioned during the 15 replays of Packers WR James Jones fumble at the end of the game on Monday night that he had the ball in the wrong hand? What, they couldn’t see the replay while they were all on their knees fighting over who got the taint of Bears LB Brian Urlacher? Jesus, it’s a play kids make in Pee Wees. And coaches teach it. If you’re running to the right, the ball goes in the right hand, towards the sideline of which you are headed. Otherwise it’s being lazy. Jones had the time to switch hands, he didn’t, and it cost his team a chance at winning the game. The Bears still can’t run the ball and QB Jay Cutler threw the ball to 2 Packers DBs on his last drive only to be dropped-that’s why they play defense and not offense. I think the G-Men come out mad. Giants.

New England (-1) @ Miami: Okay, one of the oldest adages to gambling (note-if gambling were legal) is never to bet on your favorite team. And if you do, don’t take them as a road favorite against a divisional foe. Screw that. Miami can be beaten one way right now and one way only-deep. They still haven’t solved the safety issue that has plagued them for the last two years. Granted, New England can’t stop anyone, and I’m wondering if coach Bill Belichick is pulling a rope-a-dope. Is he playing vanilla coverages to lull opponents into thinking they can march up and down the field before he hits them with a crazy blitz scheme? I have no idea, but I know that if the Patriots can’t score at least 27 they won’t win. On this Monday night, I think they are stout against the run, bracket Miami WR/bitch Brandon Marshall and chuck it deep to WR Randy Moss. Of course, I am a fan, so take it for what it’s worth. Patriots.

Last week: 9-7

Overall: 22-26, but I finally had a winning week!

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